Commentary: Chasing Genocide

There i s a school  of  economi cs,  based ri ght  here at  Uni versi t y of  Chi cago,  t hat  suggest s t hat  di scret i onar y economi c pol i ci es,  ei t her f i scal  or monet ar y,  do not  act ual l y have t he power t o l essen t he ef f ect s of  t he busi ness cycl e or,  more speci f i cal l y,  t o pre- empt  recessi ons.  There are a number of  reasons f or t hi s,  but  t he pri mar y one i s a si mpl e probl em of  t i me:  recessi ons t ake about  7 mont hs t o r un t hei r course,  whi l e t he ef f ect s of  monet ar y pol i cy aren’t  f el t  f or at  l east  a year or t wo.  Fi scal  pol i cy i s even more probl emat i c— i nst i t ut i onal  del ays and pol i t i cal  post uri ng resul t  i n t he sor t  of  comi cal  headl i nes t hat  gi ve economi cs prof essors bel l y l aughs,  such t hi ngs as “Congress Passes Recover y Bi l l” a year af t er a recessi on has ended.

A st udy of  worl d responses t o genoci dal  conf l i ct s i n t he recent  past  suggest s t hat  a si mi l ar probl em exi st s i n worl d pol i t i cs.  At  t he panel  on Dar f uri an genoci de revi ewed i n t hi s i ssue,  a panel i st  remarked t hat  whi l e t he si t uat i on i n Dar f ur has at  l ast  begun t o get  t he i nt ernat i onal  at t ent i on i t  deser ves,  no i nt el l i gent  response has yet  been put  t oget her duri ng t he t wo years si nce t he genoci de began.  In somet hi ng of  a sad nod t o t he handl i ng of  such mat t ers,  he st at ed t hat  Dar f ur i s no l onger even t he worst  conf l i ct  si t uat i on i n t erms of  war cri mes i n t he worl d—t hat  t i t l e now bel ongs t oEast ern Congo.  These comment s drew resi gned si ghsf rom t he crowd,  f r ust rat ed acknowl edgement  t hat  event he best  ef f or t s of  concerned i ndi vi dual s are t oo l i t t l eand way t oo l at e.

Wi t hout  ext ensi ve hi st ori cal  background i nf ormat i on,suf f i ce t o say t hat  si nce t he col l apse of  t he Uni t edSt at es’  i nt er vent i on i n Somal i a ( a genoci dal  f ami ne,gi ven t he pseudo- government’s handl i ng of  f oodai d) ,  t here has been onl y one at t empt  on t he par t  oft he worl d’s ri chest  and most  power f ul  f orces t o st opgenoci de—t he work of  coal i t i on f orces i n Bosni a andKosovo.  Whet her or not  t hese f orces had any successi n t hei r endeavors i s a mat t er of  consi derabl e debat e,but  f ar more f ri ght eni ng i s t he f act  t hat  i n t he 13years si nce t he Somal i an f ami ne f i rst  made headl i nes,genoci des or near- genoci des ( def i ni t i ons seem al mostl udi crous when t here are peopl e dyi ng by t he hundredsof  t housands)  i n Rwanda,  Uganda,  Sudan,  t he Congo,and ot her zones of  t remendous conf l i ct  have t akenpl ace,  wi t hout  so much as a UN i nt er vent i on.

Even when t he t r ut h of  t hese genoci des i s woef ul l y apparent ,  f i rst – worl d ent i t i es and power f ul  i nt ernat i onal  organi zat i ons do l i t t l e besi des pass meani ngl ess resol ut i ons ( Congress vot ed over a year ago t o decl are t he vi ol ence i n Dar f ur a “genoci de,” but  f or what — not hi ng has been done) .  For t he non- government al  organi zat i ons and ai d groups t hat  wi sh t o provi de hel p t o vi ct i ms of  t hese human t ragedi es,  t hi s probl em i s especi al l y f r ust rat i ng,  f or t hey are unabl e t o f ul f i l l  t hei r obj ect i ves because t he areas i n whi ch such di sast ers occur are so unst abl e and dangerous.

There i s a remarkabl e bl eakness about  such an out l ook.  It  seems as t hough t he i nt ernat i onal  communi t y i s doomed t o remai n one st ep behi nd i n t hei r responsi ve ef f or t s t o st op genoci de or horri f i c conf l i ct  whi l e new vi ol ence er upt s around t he worl d.  What  t hen mi ght  be t he sol ut i on? The Chi cago economi st s who cri t i ci ze di scret i onar y economi c pol i ci es of f er t hei r col l eagues aut omat i c pol i ci es as a more ef f ect i ve al t ernat i ve.  They suggest  t hat  syst ems al ready i n pl ace,  such as unempl oyment  compensat i on and t he i ncrease of  t he money suppl y by 3% yearl y,  are bet t er sui t ed t o mi t i gat e t he ef f ect s of  recessi on.  Theref ore,  aut omat i c responses t o genoci de must  be consi dered i n t he real m of  i nt ernat i onal  pol i t i cs.

Cer t ai nl y such a suggest i on i s l aden wi t h probl ems— put t i ng an end t o genoci de requi res i nvadi ng a soverei gn st at e’s t erri t or y,  not  t o ment i on ri ski ng l i ves and massi ve mi l i t ar y budget s.  There are many ki nks i n such pl ans t o be worked out ,  and t he UN’s current  woes suggest  t hat  t he creat i on of  a f orce t hat  woul d be desi gned t o aut omat i cal l y respond t o genoci de woul d be ext remel y di f f i cul t .

It  cer t ai nl y woul d.  But  t hat  does not  change t he f act  t hat  under present  geo- pol i t i cal  organi zat i on,  genoci de i s al l owed t o cont i nue,  and t he worl d powers t hat  have t he st rengt h t o st op such t ragedy are gui l t y by t hei r si l ence.  There i s a pol i t i cal  argument  t o be made t hat  perhaps nat i ons woul d gai n l egi t i macy and prest i ge i n t he worl d by provi di ng t he means t o st op genoci de,  but  beyond t hi s sel f – i nt erest ed argument  a worl d commi t ment  t o t he end of  such at roci t i es i s necessar y.  Whet her t hrough t he UN,  regi onal  organi zat i ons l i ke t he EU and AU ( current l y depl oyed t o capaci t y i n Dar f ur,  t o t he det ri ment  of  ot her conf l i ct  si t uat i ons i n Af ri ca) ,  or an ent i rel y new body,  aut omat i c responses t o t he sor t  of  at avi st i c vi ol ence t hat  occurs i n t oday’s worl d must  be devel oped.  In t hat  respect ,  creat i ng a response syst em seems easy enough:  i f  peopl e i n any nat i on begi n t o di e unnat ural l y at  a cer t ai n rat e over a cer t ai n peri od of  t i me ( not  at t ri but abl e t o nat ural  di sast ers)  an i nvest i gat i on coul d be conduct ed i n t he span of  no more t han a mont h,  accompani ed by a prot ect i ve mi l i t ar y f orce.  The f i ndi ngs mi ght  ent ai l  f ur t her mi l i t ar y act i on,  dependi ng on t he deci si on of  some governi ng body but  not  t he i nput  of  t he cont ri but i ng mi l i t ar y f orces.  No case woul d be cl osed,  and no i nst ance of  pot ent i al  genoci de woul d go uni nvest i gat ed.

Di scret i onar y pol i cy i n response t o genoci de has f ai l ed i n Dar f ur,  as i t  di d i n Rwanda.  It  woul d be hopi ng agai nst  hope t hat  t hi s f ai l ure mi ght  be t he l ast ,  but  nonet hel ess,  l et  us hope.