Commentary: Chasing Genocide
There i s a school of economi cs, based ri ght here at Uni versi t y of Chi cago, t hat suggest s t hat di scret i onar y economi c pol i ci es, ei t her f i scal or monet ar y, do not act ual l y have t he power t o l essen t he ef f ect s of t he busi ness cycl e or, more speci f i cal l y, t o pre- empt recessi ons. There are a number of reasons f or t hi s, but t he pri mar y one i s a si mpl e probl em of t i me: recessi ons t ake about 7 mont hs t o r un t hei r course, whi l e t he ef f ect s of monet ar y pol i cy aren’t f el t f or at l east a year or t wo. Fi scal pol i cy i s even more probl emat i c— i nst i t ut i onal del ays and pol i t i cal post uri ng resul t i n t he sor t of comi cal headl i nes t hat gi ve economi cs prof essors bel l y l aughs, such t hi ngs as “Congress Passes Recover y Bi l l” a year af t er a recessi on has ended.
A st udy of worl d responses t o genoci dal conf l i ct s i n t he recent past suggest s t hat a si mi l ar probl em exi st s i n worl d pol i t i cs. At t he panel on Dar f uri an genoci de revi ewed i n t hi s i ssue, a panel i st remarked t hat whi l e t he si t uat i on i n Dar f ur has at l ast begun t o get t he i nt ernat i onal at t ent i on i t deser ves, no i nt el l i gent response has yet been put t oget her duri ng t he t wo years si nce t he genoci de began. In somet hi ng of a sad nod t o t he handl i ng of such mat t ers, he st at ed t hat Dar f ur i s no l onger even t he worst conf l i ct si t uat i on i n t erms of war cri mes i n t he worl d—t hat t i t l e now bel ongs t oEast ern Congo. These comment s drew resi gned si ghsf rom t he crowd, f r ust rat ed acknowl edgement t hat event he best ef f or t s of concerned i ndi vi dual s are t oo l i t t l eand way t oo l at e.
Wi t hout ext ensi ve hi st ori cal background i nf ormat i on,suf f i ce t o say t hat si nce t he col l apse of t he Uni t edSt at es’ i nt er vent i on i n Somal i a ( a genoci dal f ami ne,gi ven t he pseudo- government’s handl i ng of f oodai d) , t here has been onl y one at t empt on t he par t oft he worl d’s ri chest and most power f ul f orces t o st opgenoci de—t he work of coal i t i on f orces i n Bosni a andKosovo. Whet her or not t hese f orces had any successi n t hei r endeavors i s a mat t er of consi derabl e debat e,but f ar more f ri ght eni ng i s t he f act t hat i n t he 13years si nce t he Somal i an f ami ne f i rst made headl i nes,genoci des or near- genoci des ( def i ni t i ons seem al mostl udi crous when t here are peopl e dyi ng by t he hundredsof t housands) i n Rwanda, Uganda, Sudan, t he Congo,and ot her zones of t remendous conf l i ct have t akenpl ace, wi t hout so much as a UN i nt er vent i on.
Even when t he t r ut h of t hese genoci des i s woef ul l y apparent , f i rst – worl d ent i t i es and power f ul i nt ernat i onal organi zat i ons do l i t t l e besi des pass meani ngl ess resol ut i ons ( Congress vot ed over a year ago t o decl are t he vi ol ence i n Dar f ur a “genoci de,” but f or what — not hi ng has been done) . For t he non- government al organi zat i ons and ai d groups t hat wi sh t o provi de hel p t o vi ct i ms of t hese human t ragedi es, t hi s probl em i s especi al l y f r ust rat i ng, f or t hey are unabl e t o f ul f i l l t hei r obj ect i ves because t he areas i n whi ch such di sast ers occur are so unst abl e and dangerous.
There i s a remarkabl e bl eakness about such an out l ook. It seems as t hough t he i nt ernat i onal communi t y i s doomed t o remai n one st ep behi nd i n t hei r responsi ve ef f or t s t o st op genoci de or horri f i c conf l i ct whi l e new vi ol ence er upt s around t he worl d. What t hen mi ght be t he sol ut i on? The Chi cago economi st s who cri t i ci ze di scret i onar y economi c pol i ci es of f er t hei r col l eagues aut omat i c pol i ci es as a more ef f ect i ve al t ernat i ve. They suggest t hat syst ems al ready i n pl ace, such as unempl oyment compensat i on and t he i ncrease of t he money suppl y by 3% yearl y, are bet t er sui t ed t o mi t i gat e t he ef f ect s of recessi on. Theref ore, aut omat i c responses t o genoci de must be consi dered i n t he real m of i nt ernat i onal pol i t i cs.
Cer t ai nl y such a suggest i on i s l aden wi t h probl ems— put t i ng an end t o genoci de requi res i nvadi ng a soverei gn st at e’s t erri t or y, not t o ment i on ri ski ng l i ves and massi ve mi l i t ar y budget s. There are many ki nks i n such pl ans t o be worked out , and t he UN’s current woes suggest t hat t he creat i on of a f orce t hat woul d be desi gned t o aut omat i cal l y respond t o genoci de woul d be ext remel y di f f i cul t .
It cer t ai nl y woul d. But t hat does not change t he f act t hat under present geo- pol i t i cal organi zat i on, genoci de i s al l owed t o cont i nue, and t he worl d powers t hat have t he st rengt h t o st op such t ragedy are gui l t y by t hei r si l ence. There i s a pol i t i cal argument t o be made t hat perhaps nat i ons woul d gai n l egi t i macy and prest i ge i n t he worl d by provi di ng t he means t o st op genoci de, but beyond t hi s sel f – i nt erest ed argument a worl d commi t ment t o t he end of such at roci t i es i s necessar y. Whet her t hrough t he UN, regi onal organi zat i ons l i ke t he EU and AU ( current l y depl oyed t o capaci t y i n Dar f ur, t o t he det ri ment of ot her conf l i ct si t uat i ons i n Af ri ca) , or an ent i rel y new body, aut omat i c responses t o t he sor t of at avi st i c vi ol ence t hat occurs i n t oday’s worl d must be devel oped. In t hat respect , creat i ng a response syst em seems easy enough: i f peopl e i n any nat i on begi n t o di e unnat ural l y at a cer t ai n rat e over a cer t ai n peri od of t i me ( not at t ri but abl e t o nat ural di sast ers) an i nvest i gat i on coul d be conduct ed i n t he span of no more t han a mont h, accompani ed by a prot ect i ve mi l i t ar y f orce. The f i ndi ngs mi ght ent ai l f ur t her mi l i t ar y act i on, dependi ng on t he deci si on of some governi ng body but not t he i nput of t he cont ri but i ng mi l i t ar y f orces. No case woul d be cl osed, and no i nst ance of pot ent i al genoci de woul d go uni nvest i gat ed.
Di scret i onar y pol i cy i n response t o genoci de has f ai l ed i n Dar f ur, as i t di d i n Rwanda. It woul d be hopi ng agai nst hope t hat t hi s f ai l ure mi ght be t he l ast , but nonet hel ess, l et us hope.
